The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has pushed back against claims by power generation companies that a weak transmission grid is responsible for over 2,500MW of wasted power, arguing that regulatory data places the source of the shortfall firmly at the power stations.
Responding to recent statements by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) alleging a transmission bottleneck, TCN pointed to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) First Quarter 2026 report to dispute claims that the grid cannot wheel more than 4,500MW.
TCN clarified that its verified transmission wheeling capacity currently stands at 8,700MW, following extensive investments in transformers and substation upgrades.
Plant availability and operational records
Citing NERC’s quarterly data, TCN noted that the average available generation capacity declared by GenCos themselves was 4,457.96 MW—representing what plant operators reported as ready for dispatch upstream of any transmission lines.
The company highlighted that the national grid previously demonstrated its capacity by successfully transmitting an all-time peak of 5,801.84 MW on 4 March 2025, delivering over 128,000 MWh of energy in a single day.
“A grid said to be limited to 4,500MW could not, as a matter of physics, have carried any of these volumes, let alone all three,” TCN said in a press statement.
Low availability factors and gas constraints
According to NERC’s audited records, the average Plant Availability Factor across the generation fleet dropped to 32.72 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, meaning that 67.28 per cent of installed capacity was unavailable for dispatch before reaching transmission networks.
TCN attributed the generation shortfalls to mechanical breakdowns, seasonal water level drops at hydropower stations, and severe gas supply shortages, which APGC previously acknowledged had fallen below 43 per cent of daily thermal requirements.
Furthermore, NERC recorded an overall grid load factor of 92.26 per cent for the quarter, indicating that over 92 per cent of the capacity GenCos declared available was successfully dispatched to distribution networks.
Financial realities and sector stability
Addressing commercial losses across the electricity value chain, TCN noted that financial shortfalls stem primarily from distribution company collection deficits rather than evacuation limits. NERC reported that distribution companies recorded an aggregate technical and commercial loss of 37.44 per cent during the period.
While acknowledging ongoing challenges with grid stability and equipment vandalism, TCN urged industry stakeholders to base public assessments on published regulatory data to ensure sector interventions target the appropriate areas of the value chain.
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