Segun Ojumu

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Nigeria’s leading trade union has warned that petrol prices could surge to ₦2,000 per litre unless the government intervenes to shield local refineries from the “shocks” of the global oil market.

The Trade Union Congress (TUC) issued the warning on Thursday, as international crude prices climbed above $97 per barrel. The spike follows renewed military action in the Middle East, which has threatened to destabilise the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and disrupt supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

TUC President Festus Osifo argued that the current crisis is being compounded by the continued depreciation of the Naira, leaving Nigerian workers to bear the brunt of a “double blow” of global volatility and domestic currency weakness.

The ‘Excess Crude’ Solution

To prevent a total collapse of purchasing power, the TUC is proposing a radical shift in how Nigeria manages its oil wealth. Mr Osifo called on the Federal Government to deploy revenue generated from the “price gap” in the national budget:

• The Budget Gap: Nigeria’s 2024 budget was benchmarked at $64.85 per barrel. With current prices nearing $100, the union argues the “excess” is a windfall that should be redirected.
• Direct Production Subsidy: The TUC wants 60% of these unbudgeted funds used to subsidise the crude supplied to domestic facilities, including the Dangote Refinery and various modular plants.
• Stabilising the Pump: By subsidising the “input” (crude) rather than the “output” (refined petrol), the union claims the government can lower prices at the pump without the corruption risks associated with previous subsidy regimes.

Analysis: A Nation on the Edge

For the average Nigerian, the TUC’s warning of ₦2,000 per litre is a nightmare scenario. Only yesterday, the Dangote Refinery—once seen as the “magic bullet” for fuel self-sufficiency—raised its gantry prices to ₦1,275 per litre, citing international benchmarks.

The TUC’s proposal is a direct challenge to President Bola Tinubu’s “liberalisation” policy. While the government has moved toward a free-market model, the labour unions argue that a country with such vast oil reserves should not be “helpless” against international price swings.

However, the “excess crude” revenue is technically shared between the three tiers of government. Convincing state governors to surrender their portion of this windfall to support private and modular refineries will be a formidable political hurdle for the Presidency.

‘Salaries Are No Longer Enough’

The human cost of the price hike is already visible. In Lagos and Abuja, commuters are facing a fresh round of transport fare increases, while pensioners and low-income earners have described the current hardship as “unprecedented.”

“The cost of petrol is heading towards ₦2,000,” Mr. Osifo told reporters. “It has deeply affected the purchasing power of the salaries that we earn.”

The TUC has confirmed it will formally present its “60 per cent subsidy” proposal to the Presidency this week. With the World Bank predicting further inflationary pressure for Nigeria due to the “oil shock,” the government’s response to the labour unions will be a defining moment for the country’s economic stability in 2026.