A leading Nigerian think tank has criticised calls by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) for a fresh round of wage awards, warning that such a move would sacrifice long-term economic stability for “short-term gratification.”
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) described the NLC’s demands as “myopic” following projections that Nigeria could gain an estimated ₦30 trillion ($18bn) windfall from surging oil prices sparked by conflict in the Middle East.
The NLC has been lobbying the federal government to use the anticipated revenue to fund new civil servant allowances and tax suspensions for low-income earners to combat rising living costs.
‘Protect the harvest’
In a strongly worded policy statement, IMPI Chairman Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju argued that the NLC’s proposal ignores the majority of the nation’s workforce.
“One cannot eat the seeds and expect to reap a harvest,” Dr. Akinsiju said. “The implication of the NLC’s demands is an insistence that the Federal Government share the anticipated ₦30 trillion… with formal sector workers who represent just 15% of Nigeria’s total workforce.”
The group questioned the fairness of the demand, noting that over 96 million Nigerians working in the informal sector would be left behind if the windfall were distributed solely to unionised civil servants.
A shift in resilience
The think tank acknowledged that the pump price of petrol has risen by 34% over the last three weeks due to global volatility, but insisted the Nigerian economy is now better positioned to handle the shock than in previous decades.
IMPI highlighted a “fundamental shift” in economic management under President Bola Tinubu, contrasting the current era with the “corruption-laden” subsidy regimes of 2000–2014.
“Between 2011 and 2014, when oil prices skyrocketed, increases in poverty, maternal mortality, and unemployment permeated the country,” the statement noted.
Economic indicators
To support its case, the group pointed to a significant recovery in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
- 2024 GDP: $241 billion
- 2025 GDP: $308 billion (Nominal)
- Growth: An 18.4% increase in Naira terms, marking the first dollar-denominated GDP recovery since 2019.
IMPI concluded that the projected oil windfall should be used to “enhance economic resilience” rather than being depleted through immediate consumption, urging the government to stay the course on its current reform agenda.
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