More than 2,700 people are estimated to have died from heat-related causes during intense heatwaves that hit England and Wales in May and June, a study has found.
The research, jointly conducted by experts from Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggests that nearly half of those fatalities were a direct result of human-induced global warming.
According to the study released on Monday, climate change made peak daytime temperatures during the spikes 3°C to 4°C hotter than they would have been otherwise.
The UK and much of western Europe experienced two unprecedented periods of extreme heat early in the season, with monthly temperature records in England shattered at 35.1°C in May and 37.7°C in June.
“They were extreme heatwaves for the UK… and they’re particularly exceptional for the timing and how early in the year they occurred,” said Mark McCarthy, science manager of the Met Office’s climate attribution team.
The study estimates that around 550 people died during the first heatwave between May 21 and 29, while nearly 2,200 people lost their lives during the second spell between June 18 and 28.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is expected to publish its own official data based on actual death records in the coming weeks.
Prof. Lea Berrang Ford, head of the UKHSA’s Centre for Climate and Health Security, noted that while the study relies on statistical models rather than observed mortality, the findings clearly “illustrate the scale of risk associated with extreme heat and the growing threat climate change poses to our wellbeing.”
The findings have renewed scrutiny on the UK’s infrastructure. Last year, the government’s independent advisory body, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), warned that the country was fundamentally “not ready” for the impacts of a warming planet.
In a subsequent report published in May, the committee warned that up to 92% of British homes could become dangerously overheated by 2050, urging ministers to introduce legally binding maximum workplace temperatures and invest heavily in cooling systems for public buildings like schools and hospitals.
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