A pro-government policy think tank claims that three years of aggressive economic restructuring under President Bola Tinubu have pulled Nigeria back from the brink of bankruptcy.

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) released a comprehensive review on Friday, stating that the administration’s policies have dismantled a “retrogressive and populist” economic model that drained trillions of naira from public coffers over the last two decades.

According to the report, the removal of the controversial fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange windows have significantly stabilised the West African nation’s macroeconomic fundamentals.

However, critics and citizens continue to grapple with the immediate fallout of these reforms, which have driven up the cost of living and triggered high inflation.

End of ‘Naira Defence’ and Fuel Subsidies

The IMPI report heavily criticized previous administrations for what it termed “fiscal recklessness”.

The group noted that between 2000 and 2023, successive governments spent an estimated $388bn (£305bn) attempting to artificially defend the value of the local currency, the Naira, which still lost over 2,000% of its value in that period. Additionally, over $81bn was spent on fuel subsidies between 2005 and 2022.

“This wasted $388bn should have been accounted for in the nation’s external reserves and deployed directly to build the economy rather than being filtered away,” the policy document stated.

Since the removal of the subsidy in May 2023, the report claims that monthly statutory allocations shared among federal, state, and local governments have more than doubled, frequently exceeding 1.5trn naira (£760m), compared to a pre-subsidy average of 650bn naira.

Debt and Revenue Rebound

The think tank highlighted several key economic indicators to back its assertion that Nigeria is transitioning into a structurally sound economy:

• Debt Service Reduction: The country’s debt service-to-revenue ratio reportedly dropped from a staggering 97% in 2023 to 50% by 2025.
• Tax Revenue Surge: Revenue generated from taxes increased from 711bn naira in May 2023 to 28.79trn naira in 2025, supported by the addition of 814,000 new corporate taxpayers.
• Trade and Exports: Driven by a “Nigeria First” local content push, the country recorded a trade surplus of over 6.69trn naira by late 2025, with non-oil exports hitting a record high of $6.1bn.
• Debt-to-GDP: As of April 2026, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 32.3%, down from 35.5% the previous year, which IMPI argues keeps the nation well below international distress thresholds.

Emerging Job Markets

The report also argued that the administration’s focus on tech digitisation, agribusiness, and infrastructure is beginning to turn Nigeria into a “job-producing economy.”

It cited recent nationwide recruitment drives within major financial institutions, expanding fintech networks, and international oil companies operating in the Niger Delta and major urban hubs like Lagos and Abuja. Furthermore, the government’s “Renewed Hope” housing project across 14 states is projected to generate over 300,000 construction jobs.

While independent economists agree that the long-term outlook may show signs of structural repair, the Tinubu administration remains under pressure to translate these macroeconomic gains into immediate relief for ordinary Nigerians hit hard by the transition away from state subsidies.