The Chairman of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission, Professor Joash Amupitan and key political stakeholders on Thursday sounded the alarm over “creeping apathy” as new data revealed that while most Nigerians want to vote in 2027, fear and a lack of trust could keep them at home.
The roundtable, organised by Yiaga Africa, brought together the head of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Joash Amupitan, and the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) to dissect the results of a fresh survey on voter intentions.
INEC: ‘Trust Must Be Rebuilt’
Prof. Joash Amupitan, SAN, who was represented by a National Commissioner, Mohammed Haruna, did not shy away from the sobering reality of the 2023 elections, where voter turnout plummeted to just 27%. He warned that democracy is at risk when citizens feel their “votes do not produce meaningful change.”
“When trust in institutions erodes, participation declines,” Amupitan said. He linked the trend of stay-at-home voters to unfulfilled promises and inconsistent application of laws.
However, he vowed that under his leadership, INEC is “firmly committed” to fixing technological gaps and enhancing transparency. He noted that while the commission is reviewing its processes, the responsibility for high turnout also rests on the shoulders of politicians to behave responsibly and security agencies to guarantee safety.
The Legislative Race Against Time
A recurring theme throughout the summit was the urgent need for the National Assembly to pass the Electoral Act Amendment Bill.
Yiaga Africa’s Executive Director, Samson Itodo, and IPAC Chairman, Yusuf Mamman Dantalle, both pushed for the legal framework to be finalised early. There is growing concern that if the law is not amended before INEC must legally issue the Notice of Election in February 2025, the 2027 polls will be governed by the same “flawed” rules of the past.
Key proposed changes include:
Mandatory electronic transmission of results to prevent human interference.
Early release of funds to INEC to avoid logistical nightmares.
A NIN requirement to further sanitize the voter register.
What the Data Says: 2027 by the Numbers
The Yiaga Africa/NOI Polls National Voter Intention Survey provided a complex snapshot of the Nigerian electorate’s mood:
Metric Finding
Intention to Vote : 77% of respondents say they intend to vote in 2027.
Primary Barrier : 42% cite fear of violence as the main reason they might stay away.
Key Influences : Security, quality of candidates, and economic conditions.
Trust Deficit : Confidence in INEC remains “fragile,” particularly in the southern regions.
What this means for next year
The findings suggest a “paradox of enthusiasm.” While three-quarters of the country wants to participate, the actual turnout will depend on whether the government can improve the economy and, more importantly, secure the polling units.
IPAC Chairman Dantalle argued that the 2023 low turnout was partly “artificial,” caused by the BVAS technology cleaning up “bloated” registers that previously included the deceased and underage voters. He insisted that for the first time, “votes counted,” pointing to the fact that sitting governors lost seats to dark-horse candidates.
The ‘Bandwagon’ Solution
In a bold policy recommendation, IPAC called for all elections to be held on a single day. This, they argue, would:
Reduce costs significantly for a struggling economy.
Eliminate the “bandwagon effect” where winners of the presidential poll influence state-level results.
Boost turnout for legislative and local races that are usually ignored.
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